El-Rufai’s SDP Gamble Falters as North-West Power Brokers Reject Alliance Moves

Former Kaduna State Governor, Nasir El-Rufai, is facing a growing political dilemma as his bold move to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) has so far failed to gain significant traction—especially in his North-West base.

El-Rufai officially parted ways with the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) on March 10, 2025, citing a growing disconnect between his personal principles and the direction of the party. He declared his intention to rally opposition figures under the SDP to mount a formidable challenge to the APC ahead of the 2027 general elections.

However, several weeks on, that vision appears increasingly bleak. Despite hosting several behind-the-scenes meetings, El-Rufai has not succeeded in drawing any major political figures from key North-Western states like Kano, Kaduna, Kebbi, Katsina, Jigawa, Sokoto, and Zamfara into the SDP.

Insiders familiar with the talks say that El-Rufai made “frantic efforts” to woo sitting governors and top legislators in the region, but none accepted his offer. Notably, he reportedly reached out to Senators Adamu Aliero, Yahaya Abdullahi, and Garba Maidoki in Kebbi State—only to be rebuffed as they opted to rejoin the APC instead.

Even overtures to the Nasarawa State Governor were unsuccessful.

“There’s simply no belief that El-Rufai’s SDP is a serious alternative right now,” a source close to the negotiations told Daily Post. “The party lacks infrastructure and visibility across the North.”

Currently, only two lawmakers from Nasarawa represent the SDP in the National Assembly: Senator Godiya Akwashikiand Hon. Abubakar Sarki Dahiru.

Worsening matters, El-Rufai’s history continues to cast a shadow. Some in the North remain wary of the SDP’s old association with President Tinubu, who won a senatorial seat under the party in 1992. Others believe El-Rufai may still be covertly aligned with the president.

“People are skeptical,” a Kaduna-based political observer said. “They suspect this might be another strategy to fracture the opposition, or worse, that El-Rufai hasn’t truly left Tinubu’s camp.”

Even within southern Nigeria, El-Rufai’s influence is limited. His strong support for the controversial Muslim-Muslim ticket in the 2023 elections alienated many Christian communities, making his appeal there politically toxic.

Adding to his frustrations, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar reportedly met with El-Rufai recently to urge him to return to the PDP. But sources say El-Rufai instead tried to convince Atiku to defect to the SDP—arguing that the PDP was crumbling under internal conflict, especially with FCT Minister Nyesom Wike still wielding significant disruptive power.

The meeting ended without a resolution, leaving El-Rufai in political limbo.

With no major figures yet backing his move and trust issues dogging his effort, El-Rufai’s political capital appears to be waning. So far, the most notable individual he’s drawn to the SDP is comedian MC Tagwaye, popular for mimicking former President Buhari—a symbolic but politically inconsequential endorsement.

“Convincing a comedian isn’t the same as securing a political heavyweight,” another insider quipped.

Much of El-Rufai’s current struggles are linked to his fallout with President Tinubu after he was dropped from the ministerial list in 2023—allegedly due to a DSS security report. Many believe that incident marked the beginning of his political isolation.

Now, as he tries to rebrand himself through the SDP, El-Rufai finds himself politically boxed in—with dwindling support, rising suspicion, and no clear path forward.